NCAA Tournament March Madness

#140 MTSU

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Projection: need to automatically qualify

MTSU’s profile reads like a team with bright flashes and ugly blemishes: the neutral-site win at Murray State and a road victory at Evansville show it can close tough games away from home and the home win over UAB is a useful résumé topper, but the heavy loss at Michigan and neutral setbacks to George Washington and McNeese State leave lingering doubts about how it performs against stronger opposition. The Hilltoppers still have meaningful opportunities to change the narrative with home tests such as Belmont and a brutal road trip that includes Houston and New Mexico State, and the rest of the conference slate against the likes of Louisiana Tech, Liberty and WKU provides a straightforward path to add quality wins or accumulate more damaging results. Selection criteria emphasize quality victories, the cost of bad losses and how a team fares outside its building, and MTSU’s mix of solid nonconference wins, a couple of resume-damaging defeats, and several upcoming chances to prove itself explains why its current standing looks the way it does.

Date Opponent Ranking Outcome
11/12@Evansville295W77-72
11/19@Michigan1L86-61
11/23(N)Murray St114W90-87
11/24(N)G Washington65L92-79
11/25(N)McNeese St75L72-62
12/1UAB109W76-61
12/7Belmont8544%
12/17Kennesaw16969%
12/29@Houston83%
1/2Louisiana Tech19473%
1/4Sam Houston St12757%
1/8@UTEP23861%
1/10@New Mexico St11934%
1/14@Louisiana Tech19452%
1/17Missouri St25181%
1/24@Jacksonville St23660%
1/28Liberty10450%
1/31WKU12657%
2/4Florida Intl20675%
2/7@Delaware27166%
2/12@Kennesaw16948%
2/14@WKU12635%
2/18@Sam Houston St12735%
2/21Delaware27184%
2/26UTEP23880%
2/28New Mexico St11956%
3/5@Florida Intl20655%
3/7@Missouri St25163%