NCAA Tournament March Madness

#347 NC Central

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Projection: need to automatically qualify

The projection that NC Central must take the conference crown makes sense because its résumé is defined more by heavy losses at major programs than by signature victories; trips to NC State, Virginia, North Carolina, Kentucky and Penn State produced results that will stick with a committee and swamp the modest wins on the ledger. The program’s best moments are the road wins at Coppin State and Morgan State and the home victory over Norfolk State which show it can win away in league play and defend its home floor against comparable foes. The worst moments are the lopsided defeats at hostile, high‑major venues which erase any claim to a quality nonconference résumé and leave little room for margin for error. With the closing schedule focused on Delaware State, Maryland Eastern Shore, South Carolina State and rematches against conference opponents, the clearest and most reliable path to the tournament is the conference tournament because there are no marquee neutral wins to counter those elite road losses. If NC Central can string together the remaining league wins and get hot in the conference tournament the narrative shifts but as currently constructed the résumé lacks the standout victories needed for an at-large berth.

Date Opponent Ranking Outcome
11/3@NC State24L114-66
11/7@Virginia16L81-62
11/9@Appalachian St216L76-54
11/14@North Carolina28L97-53
11/22@Dayton85L74-55
11/25@SC Upstate298L82-67
12/3@James Madison229L67-62
12/6NC A&T296L69-54
12/9@Kentucky32L103-67
12/20Longwood274L74-72
12/29@Penn St125L90-67
1/3Norfolk St307W69-67
1/10@Coppin St364W88-77
1/12@Morgan St356W89-78
1/17Howard272L83-69
1/26MD E Shore32652%
1/31@S Carolina St36152%
2/7@Norfolk St30726%
2/14Coppin St36484%
2/16Morgan St35669%
2/21@Howard27219%
2/28@Delaware St35950%
3/2@MD E Shore32630%
3/5S Carolina St36173%