NCAA Tournament March Madness
#161 Toledo
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Projection: need to automatically qualify
Toledo’s profile shows enough offensive punch and a few resume-building moments to be dangerous but not enough marquee road or neutral wins to feel secure without the conference automatic, so the most reliable route is to win the MAC tournament. The high points are a gritty road victory at Wright State, a neutral-site win over Troy and convincing home performances against Detroit and Youngstown State that demonstrate the offense can carry the team. The low points are bad nonconference setbacks to South Alabama and Marshall and a neutral loss to Belmont that expose defensive lapses and a lack of a standout signature win. The remaining schedule presents clear opportunities to alter that narrative with road tests at Oakland, Robert Morris and Michigan State plus a brutal trip to Akron, while a slate of winnable conference games at home offers chances to build momentum, but given the current mix of solid offense, shaky defense and limited quality wins, the automatic bid is the most practical expectation.
| Date | Opponent | Ranking | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/3 | South Alabama | 167 | L76-74 |
| 11/8 | Marshall | 170 | L85-73 |
| 11/11 | @Wright St | 154 | W81-71 |
| 11/15 | Detroit | 309 | W90-83 |
| 11/19 | Youngstown St | 175 | W92-75 |
| 11/24 | (N)Troy | 145 | W75-68 |
| 11/26 | (N)Belmont | 85 | L87-72 |
| 12/6 | @Oakland | 144 | 34% |
| 12/13 | @Robert Morris | 174 | 42% |
| 12/16 | @Michigan St | 11 | 2% |
| 12/30 | W Michigan | 263 | 78% |
| 1/3 | @C Michigan | 300 | 66% |
| 1/6 | @N Illinois | 321 | 70% |
| 1/9 | Miami OH | 135 | 52% |
| 1/10 | Miami OH | 135 | 52% |
| 1/13 | Ohio | 212 | 70% |
| 1/17 | @Kent | 123 | 28% |
| 1/20 | @Massachusetts | 187 | 44% |
| 1/24 | Bowling Green | 112 | 44% |
| 1/27 | @Akron | 60 | 12% |
| 1/31 | Ball St | 324 | 87% |
| 2/3 | Kent | 123 | 50% |
| 2/11 | @W Michigan | 263 | 58% |
| 2/14 | @Bowling Green | 112 | 24% |
| 2/21 | E Michigan | 185 | 66% |
| 2/24 | N Illinois | 321 | 86% |
| 2/28 | @Ohio | 212 | 49% |
| 3/3 | @Miami OH | 135 | 30% |
| 3/6 | Buffalo | 208 | 69% |